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I was reviewing one of my favorite sites that lists when things are on deepest discount. They showed their September deals and a funny item appeared on the list: Blu-Ray Player. Those are still a thing?Anyway, going to keep it simple for September.
Pay quarterly taxes
Review your benefits
Find a financial book to read
The 2nd quarter increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, business investment, and government spending. The only decreases were in business inventory investment and housing investment. The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in services and both durable and nondurable goods. The unemployment rate is low, wages are increasing and people, in general, feel good about their financial situation. The increase in exports reflected increases in exports of goods. Clearly a result of foreign companies purchasing supplies prior to tariff rate increases going into effect.
Concerns, however remain. Last quarter we noted the possibility of the economy overheating. We now believe this is less likely because of the potential impact of a global trade war. Business activity appears to be slowing as companies weigh the odds of there being a trade war or not. As is, the tariff increases that have been implemented are small relative to global trade. The real danger continues to be the uncertainty about what happens next. If trade tensions sap business confidence, causing executives to put off capital spending and other investment decisions, then the damage could get serious. Time will tell.
August 4th is Coast Guard Day. Alexander Hamilton, along with the help of US congress, authorized the building of a fleet of Revenue Service Cutters. The August to do’s all relate to keeping yourself safe and limiting your exposure to harm much like the Coast Guard does with boaters every day.
Protect your home
Protect your kids
Protect your financial accounts
“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” – Mark Twain
Financial crises have hit the global markets on a regular basis throughout history. And it appears financial crises will continue to pop up at regular intervals into the future. The first recorded speculative bubble was Tulip Mania in 1637, a period in the Dutch Golden Age during which the prices for fashionable tulip bulbs reached extraordinarily high levels only to dramatically collapse. Today, we view stocks, bonds and commodities as our investments of choice and, as always, current events continue to cause the financial markets to fluctuate, sometimes dramatically.
“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” – Mark Twain
Financial crises have hit the global markets on a regular basis throughout history. And it appears financial crises will continue to pop up at regular intervals into the future. The first recorded speculative bubble was Tulip Mania in 1637, a period in the Dutch Golden Age during which the prices for fashionable tulip bulbs reached extraordinarily high levels only to dramatically collapse. Today, we view stocks, bonds and commodities as our investments of choice and, as always, current events continue to cause the financial markets to fluctuate, sometimes dramatically.
Here is a brief history of major financial crisis that have hit the globe in the past few decades. Each time, the stock and bond markets have taken a beating. And time and again, they bounce back to higher highs.
The 4th of July seems like such an odd thing to celebrate. We are really celebrating the most famous divorce decree ever written. Don’t get me wrong, I love the document, but it was just a bunch of bitter guys generating a divorce decree with barely any input from the counterpart.
From now on, I believe we should turn Independence Day into Financial Independence Day. Start celebrating those who have hit financial milestones.
On to the To-Do’s…
I hear it all the time. Having lunch with a friend, “My portfolio is up 15%” or from a friend at another financial firm, “Our portfolios are up 10%”. My initial reaction is to do a quick back of the napkin comparison. Reality sets in and I start asking questions to better understand what they are talking about. What I realize is they are quoting raw returns. The raw return is the return over a past time period (such as 6 months, 1 year, etc.), without adjusting for risk. Looking at only the raw return can twist your perceptions about how your portfolio is performing and lead you to bad choices – i.e. taking on more risk or flip-flopping from one investment strategy to another.
On April 13, 2018, Kentucky legislation passed a new tax bill into law. Instead of reading the thousands of pages of the new tax law, which I know many of you enjoy dearly, I thought a summary of some of the main highlights would be useful. This does not include every single change in the tax law and is only intended to summarize the changes that will have a wider impact.
Our economic indicators continue to run positive for the first quarter of 2018. Consumer spending, business investments and residential fixed investments rose at a 4.6% annual rate. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a broad measure of the nation’s overall economic activity has shown consistent growth over the past three quarters; up 3.2% in 2017’s 3rd quarter, 2.9% in the 4th quarter and 2% in the 1st quarter of 2018.
While the economic news is positive, there is now a concern the economy is potential overheating. The period of easy money has come to an end. The Fed is raising interest rates, albeit slowly. However, there are growing employment pressures which have impelled economists and market watchers to voice concern over the potential for rapid inflation. In addition to this, global trade rhetoric and the risk of political gridlock, have marked the return of stock market volatility.
The Eurozone economy finished 2017 with a bang showing growth at the fastest pace since 2007. Year-over-year, GDP in the region grew at a 2.6% pace with Germany and Italy having picked up the pace. The German economy rose 0.8% on the quarter while France, the 2nd largest economy, and Italy both grew at 0.5% on the quarter and 2.2% annualized. However, the economic machine has throttled back to neutral. The tariff debate and other political concerns are primarily to blame. Whether or not this is a passing condition remains to be seen.
