economic updates

2nd Quarter 2018 | John's Market Commentary

2nd Quarter 2018 | John's Market Commentary

Well, 2018’s second quarter earnings season is history.  It was pretty much a repeat of the first quarter.  Once again, if you were to read the headlines, you would be led to believe the end-of-times was near.  Reporter anxiety continues to run high and, at times almost hysterical.  The continuing trade spat between the U.S. and China (and other countries), the threats from North Korea and Iran, the geopolitical risk from a populist Italy and a messy Brexit, or any one of several Trump tweets all ensured the fear-based media operated in full-on mode.  Of course, this in turn has fed market volatility, which has risen considerably in 2018.      

While that approach may be good at grabbing attention, it does little to convey the current situation of our global economy.  The headlines are all bark, no bite.  The reality, at least at this early juncture, is that the tariffs have yet to have any impact on the U.S. economy.  Small business sentiment continues to run high and, producers are in growth mode.  And, more importantly, broad based consumer confidence continues to run high as well.  75% of our GDP is created through consumer spending and, make no mistake, the consumer is spending!!  Unemployment is at record lows, wages are rising, and the public feels confident in their financial position.