As 2024 draws to a close, it’s natural to take a moment to reflect on the milestones, challenges, and lessons of the past year. It’s also an opportunity to turn our gaze forward, setting intentions and planning for a financially sound and prosperous 2025.
2nd Quarter 2018 | John's Market Commentary
Well, 2018’s second quarter earnings season is history. It was pretty much a repeat of the first quarter. Once again, if you were to read the headlines, you would be led to believe the end-of-times was near. Reporter anxiety continues to run high and, at times almost hysterical. The continuing trade spat between the U.S. and China (and other countries), the threats from North Korea and Iran, the geopolitical risk from a populist Italy and a messy Brexit, or any one of several Trump tweets all ensured the fear-based media operated in full-on mode. Of course, this in turn has fed market volatility, which has risen considerably in 2018.
While that approach may be good at grabbing attention, it does little to convey the current situation of our global economy. The headlines are all bark, no bite. The reality, at least at this early juncture, is that the tariffs have yet to have any impact on the U.S. economy. Small business sentiment continues to run high and, producers are in growth mode. And, more importantly, broad based consumer confidence continues to run high as well. 75% of our GDP is created through consumer spending and, make no mistake, the consumer is spending!! Unemployment is at record lows, wages are rising, and the public feels confident in their financial position.
Correction Time: The Market Takes a Hit
After reaching all-time highs on January 26, 2018, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 went into a two-week slide that saw both stock indexes drop by more than 10%, a decline that is typically considered a market correction.1
Analysts have been saying for several years that the long, booming bull market was overvalued and due for a correction, so the drop was not a surprise in the big picture.2 And even after the 10% plunge, the Dow was up 19% over the previous 12 months, and the S&P 500 was up 12.5%.3
It's natural to be concerned about this kind of shift, but more important to maintain perspective and focus on your long-term goals. It may be helpful to consider some of the reasons behind the surge of market volatility.